September 25, 2003
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeremy Jackson | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jeremy Jackson | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeremy Jackson | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:04 | 2:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +63 |
Nick Diaz earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:04, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jeremy Jackson was submitted.
| Metric | Jeremy Jackson | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 92 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 967 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Nick Diaz edged the striking exchanges with 92 vs 71 total strikes, 17 vs 9 significant strikes, 70.8% vs 24.3% accuracy. Nick Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeremy Jackson | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 13 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:28 | 6:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 850 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -150 | +150 |
Nick Diaz dominated Jeremy Jackson on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 6:43 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jeremy Jackson | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Nick Diaz demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Nick Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Jeremy Jackson's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremy Jackson | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Nick Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jeremy Jackson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeremy Jackson | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.