January 27, 2017
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeremy Kimball | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcos Rogerio de Lima for the expected result. Had Jeremy Kimball pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jeremy Kimball | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeremy Kimball | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:27 | 2:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 975 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +56 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:27, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jeremy Kimball | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 957 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 12 vs 5 significant strikes, 48.0% vs 29.4% accuracy. Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeremy Kimball | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:18 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 954 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima controlled Jeremy Kimball on the ground with 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremy Kimball | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +57 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this activity level, while Jeremy Kimball's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremy Kimball | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jeremy Kimball is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeremy Kimball | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.