May 17, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeremy Larsen | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 958 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +32 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jeremy Larsen | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 958 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeremy Larsen | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:13 | 0:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 918 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +79 |
Lucas Martins gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremy Larsen | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 52 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 108 | 111 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 44 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 834 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -82 | +82 |
Jeremy Larsen controlled the striking through superior volume (59 vs 44 total strikes), significant strike advantage (52 vs 39), superior accuracy (48.1% vs 35.1%), 1 knockdown. However, since Jeremy Larsen lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Lucas Martins's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeremy Larsen | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:25 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 926 | 974 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Lucas Martins landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jeremy Larsen | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 351 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 958 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +51 |
Lucas Martins demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lucas Martins capitalized on this activity level, while Jeremy Larsen's 351-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremy Larsen | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 958 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Lucas Martins started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jeremy Larsen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeremy Larsen | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 958 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

