Jeremy Stephens vs Justin Buchholz

September 15, 2009

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1058
(+32)
Jeremy Stephens
Winner: Jeremy Stephens
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage
Round 1 • 3:23

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Jeremy Stephens+32
Justin Buchholz-30
952
(-30)
Justin Buchholz

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: +30Justin Buchholz: -30

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensJustin Buchholz
Total UFC Fights84
Experience Gap4-4
Experience ELO1 024951
ELO Change+30-30
💡

What Happened

Jeremy Stephens's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jeremy Stephens for the expected result. Had Justin Buchholz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: +21Justin Buchholz: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensJustin Buchholz
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 007962
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: +21Justin Buchholz: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensJustin Buchholz
Fight OutcomeTKO - Doctor's StoppageTKO - Doctor's Stoppage
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:233:23
Win Type ELO1 099999
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

Jeremy Stephens earned an early finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 1 at 3:23, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: +62Justin Buchholz: -62

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensJustin Buchholz
Significant Strikes Landed289
Significant Strikes Attempted5049
Total Strikes Landed3011
Knockdowns Scored20
Striking ELO1 198906
ELO Change+62-62
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What Happened

Jeremy Stephens dominated the striking exchanges with 28 vs 9 significant strikes, 56.0% vs 18.4% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: +47Justin Buchholz: -47

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensJustin Buchholz
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:260:00
Ground Strikes Landed60
Ground ELO1 020882
ELO Change+47-47
💡

What Happened

Jeremy Stephens landed 2 knockdowns followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: +31Justin Buchholz: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensJustin Buchholz
Days Since Last Fight16895
Activity ELO1 091987
ELO Change+31-18
💡

What Happened

Jeremy Stephens demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Buchholz's 95-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: +22Justin Buchholz: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensJustin Buchholz
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 020968
ELO Change+22-20
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What Happened

Jeremy Stephens started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Buchholz is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: +21Justin Buchholz: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensJustin Buchholz
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 007962
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.