September 15, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 024 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Jeremy Stephens's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jeremy Stephens for the expected result. Had Justin Buchholz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 007 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:23 | 3:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 099 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Jeremy Stephens earned an early finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 1 at 3:23, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 49 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 198 | 906 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Jeremy Stephens dominated the striking exchanges with 28 vs 9 significant strikes, 56.0% vs 18.4% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:26 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 020 | 882 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Jeremy Stephens landed 2 knockdowns followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 95 |
| Activity ELO | 1 091 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -18 |
Jeremy Stephens demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Buchholz's 95-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 020 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Jeremy Stephens started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Buchholz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 007 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

