Jeremy Stephens vs Melvin Guillard

September 24, 2010

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1065
(-19)
Jeremy Stephens
Winner: Melvin Guillard
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Jeremy Stephens-19
Melvin Guillard+24
1143
(+24)
Melvin Guillard

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: -28Melvin Guillard: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensMelvin Guillard
Total UFC Fights1012
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO1 0301 126
ELO Change-28+28
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard's 2-fight experience advantage (12 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Melvin Guillard for the expected result. Had Jeremy Stephens pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: -19Melvin Guillard: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensMelvin Guillard
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0101 075
ELO Change-19+19
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: -8Melvin Guillard: +8

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensMelvin Guillard
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 1011 213
ELO Change-8+8
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Melvin Guillard receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: -21Melvin Guillard: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensMelvin Guillard
Significant Strikes Landed6273
Significant Strikes Attempted155168
Total Strikes Landed6273
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 2131 321
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard edged the striking exchanges with 73 vs 62 significant strikes. Melvin Guillard capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: -23Melvin Guillard: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensMelvin Guillard
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted21
Ground Control Time0:020:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 0311 039
ELO Change-23+23
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What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: -19Melvin Guillard: +47

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensMelvin Guillard
Days Since Last Fight140119
Activity ELO1 0951 195
ELO Change-19+47
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Melvin Guillard capitalized on this activity level, while Jeremy Stephens's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: -19Melvin Guillard: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensMelvin Guillard
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO1 0271 100
ELO Change-19+25
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jeremy Stephens is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Jeremy Stephens: -19Melvin Guillard: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricJeremy StephensMelvin Guillard
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0091 075
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.