September 24, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 030 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Melvin Guillard's 2-fight experience advantage (12 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Melvin Guillard for the expected result. Had Jeremy Stephens pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 010 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 101 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Melvin Guillard receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 62 | 73 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 155 | 168 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 213 | 1 321 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Melvin Guillard edged the striking exchanges with 73 vs 62 significant strikes. Melvin Guillard capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 031 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 095 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +47 |
Melvin Guillard demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Melvin Guillard capitalized on this activity level, while Jeremy Stephens's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Melvin Guillard extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jeremy Stephens is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 009 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

