November 14, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 038 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Jeremy Stephens's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jeremy Stephens for the expected result. Had Rafael Dos Anjos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 025 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:39 | 0:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 147 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -32 |
Jeremy Stephens gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 18 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 190 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Jeremy Stephens controlled the striking exchanges with 22 vs 9 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:22 | 5:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 043 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Jeremy Stephens landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 099 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -17 |
Jeremy Stephens demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Dos Anjos's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 035 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Jeremy Stephens started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Dos Anjos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 025 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.