May 28, 2016
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 23 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 12 | -12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 118 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Jeremy Stephens's 12-fight experience advantage (23 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jeremy Stephens for the expected result. Had Renan Barao pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 346 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Jeremy Stephens earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 140 | 137 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 327 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Jeremy Stephens edged the striking exchanges with 73 vs 51 total strikes, 55 vs 43 significant strikes. Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:23 | 2:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 197 | 1 286 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Jeremy Stephens did not secure a significant ground advantage against Renan Barao on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:23 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 309 |
| Activity ELO | 1 245 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -21 |
Jeremy Stephens demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this activity level, while Renan Barao's 309-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -27 |
Jeremy Stephens started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Renan Barao is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jeremy Stephens | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 056 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.