July 9, 2021
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jerome Rivera | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 858 | 977 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jerome Rivera | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 918 | 980 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jerome Rivera | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:02 | 2:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 854 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +64 |
Zhalgas Zhumagulov earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:02, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jerome Rivera | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 807 | 974 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Jerome Rivera controlled the striking through superior accuracy (27.5% vs 41.7%). However, since Jerome Rivera lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Zhalgas Zhumagulov's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jerome Rivera | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 795 | 965 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jerome Rivera | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 921 | 995 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +35 |
Zhalgas Zhumagulov demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Zhalgas Zhumagulov capitalized on this activity level, while Jerome Rivera's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jerome Rivera | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 919 | 982 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Zhalgas Zhumagulov started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jerome Rivera is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jerome Rivera | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 918 | 980 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

