June 2, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jesse Butler | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 42 |
| Experience Gap | -41 | 41 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Jim Miller's 41-fight experience advantage (42 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Jesse Butler pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jesse Butler | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jesse Butler | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:23 | 0:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 988 | 1 339 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +36 |
Jim Miller secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:23 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Jesse Butler | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 942 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Jim Miller controlled the striking exchanges with 60.0% vs 14.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jim Miller capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jesse Butler | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 975 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jesse Butler | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 994 | 1 322 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +15 |
Jim Miller demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Jesse Butler's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jesse Butler | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 987 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +15 |
Jim Miller started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jesse Butler is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jesse Butler | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

