January 10, 2010
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Nick Catone |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 946 | 992 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Nick Catone's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nick Catone for the expected result. Had Jesse Forbes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Nick Catone |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 958 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Nick Catone |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 949 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Nick Catone receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Nick Catone |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 160 | 103 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 889 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Nick Catone edged the striking exchanges with 65 vs 40 total strikes, 31.1% vs 20.0% accuracy. Nick Catone capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Nick Catone |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:08 | 1:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 894 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Nick Catone controlled Jesse Forbes on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:38 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Nick Catone |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 298 | 136 |
| Activity ELO | 958 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +42 |
Nick Catone demonstrated solid activity levels with 136 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nick Catone capitalized on this activity level, while Jesse Forbes's 1298-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Nick Catone |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 958 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Nick Catone started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jesse Forbes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Nick Catone |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 958 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.