May 28, 2010
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 911 | 941 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Ryan Jensen's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ryan Jensen for the expected result. Had Jesse Forbes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 936 | 971 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:06 | 1:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 908 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +78 |
Ryan Jensen earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:06, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 869 | 927 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Jesse Forbes controlled the striking through superior accuracy (33.3% vs 50.0%), 1 knockdown. However, since Jesse Forbes lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ryan Jensen's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:35 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 862 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Ryan Jensen edged out Jesse Forbes on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 138 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 937 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +42 |
Ryan Jensen demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ryan Jensen capitalized on this activity level, while Jesse Forbes's 138-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 937 | 977 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Ryan Jensen started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jesse Forbes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jesse Forbes | Ryan Jensen |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 936 | 971 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.