January 10, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jesse Lennox | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 988 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jesse Lennox | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jesse Lennox | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 015 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Rick Story receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jesse Lennox | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 128 | 172 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 976 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Rick Story controlled the striking exchanges with 67 vs 24 total strikes, 47 vs 22 significant strikes, 27.3% vs 17.2% accuracy. Rick Story capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jesse Lennox | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:03 | 4:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 978 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Rick Story controlled Jesse Lennox on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 4:23 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jesse Lennox | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 157 | 115 |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +50 |
Rick Story demonstrated solid activity levels with 115 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rick Story capitalized on this activity level, while Jesse Lennox's 157-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jesse Lennox | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Rick Story extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jesse Lennox is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jesse Lennox | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.