September 30, 2022
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 864 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Joaquim Silva's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joaquim Silva for the expected result. Had Jesse Ronson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 906 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:08 | 3:08 |
| Win Type ELO | 905 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +55 |
Joaquim Silva gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 83 | 90 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 797 | 956 |
| ELO Change | -100 | +100 |
Joaquim Silva controlled the striking exchanges with 45 vs 39 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Joaquim Silva capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 725 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Joaquim Silva landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 469 |
| Activity ELO | 911 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +14 |
Joaquim Silva demonstrated extended layoff with 469 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Joaquim Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Jesse Ronson's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 907 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +16 |
Joaquim Silva started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jesse Ronson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Joaquim Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 906 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

