April 15, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 883 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +26 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 922 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:50 | 4:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 932 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +60 |
Rafa Garcia earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:50, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jesse Ronson was submitted.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 897 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Rafa Garcia controlled the striking exchanges with 73 vs 28 total strikes, 35 vs 25 significant strikes. Rafa Garcia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 4:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 746 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Rafa Garcia dominated Jesse Ronson on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:37 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 630 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 927 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +32 |
Rafa Garcia demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafa Garcia capitalized on this activity level, while Jesse Ronson's 630-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 922 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Rafa Garcia extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jesse Ronson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jesse Ronson | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 922 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.