September 18, 2020
Women's Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jessica-Rose Clark | Sarah Alpar |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 051 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Jessica-Rose Clark's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jessica-Rose Clark for the expected result. Had Sarah Alpar pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jessica-Rose Clark | Sarah Alpar |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 013 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jessica-Rose Clark | Sarah Alpar |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:21 | 4:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 051 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +95 | -47 |
Jessica-Rose Clark gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jessica-Rose Clark | Sarah Alpar |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 76 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 106 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 124 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 077 | 892 |
| ELO Change | +108 | -108 |
Jessica-Rose Clark dominated the striking exchanges with 124 vs 26 total strikes, 76 vs 12 significant strikes, 71.7% vs 40.0% accuracy. Jessica-Rose Clark capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jessica-Rose Clark | Sarah Alpar |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:18 | 3:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 36 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 029 | 921 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -79 |
Jessica-Rose Clark controlled Sarah Alpar on the ground with 1 takedown, 8:18 of control time, 36 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jessica-Rose Clark | Sarah Alpar |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 315 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 096 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Jessica-Rose Clark demonstrated standard activity with 315 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jessica-Rose Clark capitalized on this activity level, while Sarah Alpar's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jessica-Rose Clark | Sarah Alpar |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Jessica-Rose Clark started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sarah Alpar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jessica-Rose Clark | Sarah Alpar |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 013 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.