March 29, 2019
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 923 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +33 |
Marina Rodriguez overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jessica Aguilar.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 942 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 907 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Marina Rodriguez earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 118 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 114 | 202 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 63 | 129 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 863 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Marina Rodriguez dominated the striking exchanges with 129 vs 63 total strikes, 118 vs 50 significant strikes, 58.4% vs 43.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Marina Rodriguez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:40 | 3:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 821 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Marina Rodriguez landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 946 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Marina Rodriguez demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Marina Rodriguez capitalized on this activity level, while Jessica Aguilar's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 946 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Marina Rodriguez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jessica Aguilar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Marina Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 942 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.