November 23, 2018
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 951 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +26 |
Zhang Weili overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jessica Aguilar.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 961 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:41 | 3:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 942 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +56 |
Zhang Weili earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:41, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 58 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 921 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Zhang Weili dominated the striking exchanges with 63 vs 11 total strikes, 45 vs 9 significant strikes. Zhang Weili capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 2:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 39 |
| Ground ELO | 856 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -84 | +84 |
Zhang Weili dominated Jessica Aguilar on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:30 of control time, 39 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 965 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +46 |
Zhang Weili demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Zhang Weili capitalized on this activity level, while Jessica Aguilar's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 965 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +22 |
Zhang Weili extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jessica Aguilar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jessica Aguilar | Zhang Weili |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 961 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.