September 7, 2018
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 173 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Jessica Andrade's 6-fight experience advantage (14 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jessica Andrade for the expected result. Had Karolina Kowalkiewicz pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 124 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:58 | 1:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 304 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -24 |
Jessica Andrade earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:58, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 73 | 56 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 296 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -68 |
Jessica Andrade controlled the striking exchanges with 38 vs 24 significant strikes, 52.1% vs 42.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jessica Andrade capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 433 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 196 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 239 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Jessica Andrade demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jessica Andrade capitalized on this activity level, while Karolina Kowalkiewicz's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 154 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
Jessica Andrade extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Karolina Kowalkiewicz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 118 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

