January 20, 2023
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 224 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Jessica Andrade's 8-fight experience advantage (22 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jessica Andrade for the expected result. Had Lauren Murphy pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 206 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 450 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Jessica Andrade earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 231 | 100 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 369 | 293 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 237 | 103 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 285 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Jessica Andrade dominated the striking exchanges with 237 vs 103 total strikes, 231 vs 100 significant strikes, 62.6% vs 34.1% accuracy. Jessica Andrade capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 15 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:11 | 0:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 394 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Jessica Andrade controlled Lauren Murphy on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:11 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 274 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 293 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Jessica Andrade demonstrated standard activity with 274 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jessica Andrade capitalized on this activity level, while Lauren Murphy's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 201 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Jessica Andrade extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lauren Murphy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 147 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.