November 10, 2023
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 26 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 14 | -14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 165 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Jessica Andrade's 14-fight experience advantage (26 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jessica Andrade for the expected result. Had Mackenzie Dern pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 147 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:15 | 3:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 348 | 1 185 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -35 |
Jessica Andrade gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 53 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 107 | 114 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 4 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 308 | 947 |
| ELO Change | +231 | -231 |
Jessica Andrade dominated the striking exchanges, including 4 devastating knockdowns. Jessica Andrade capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 266 | 1 239 |
| ELO Change | +70 | -70 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 99 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 264 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -21 |
Jessica Andrade demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jessica Andrade capitalized on this activity level, while Mackenzie Dern's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 154 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Jessica Andrade started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mackenzie Dern is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jessica Andrade | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 100 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.