February 23, 2024
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Mateus Mendonca |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 031 | 934 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -18 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Mateus Mendonca |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 944 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Mateus Mendonca |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 093 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jesus Aguilar receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Mateus Mendonca |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 36 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 040 | 873 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Mateus Mendonca lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Jesus Aguilar's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Mateus Mendonca |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:51 | 8:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 971 | 880 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Jesus Aguilar did not secure a significant ground advantage against Mateus Mendonca on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:51 of control time, 4 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Mateus Mendonca |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 232 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 040 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Jesus Aguilar demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jesus Aguilar capitalized on this activity level, while Mateus Mendonca's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Mateus Mendonca |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -19 |
Jesus Aguilar extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mateus Mendonca is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Mateus Mendonca |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 944 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.