February 15, 2025
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 029 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +37 |
Rafael Estevam overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jesus Aguilar.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 093 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Rafael Estevam earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 87 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 030 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Jesus Aguilar controlled the striking through superior volume (41 vs 60 total strikes), significant strike advantage (35 vs 11). However, since Jesus Aguilar lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rafael Estevam's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 11 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 19 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:14 | 9:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 945 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Rafael Estevam controlled Jesus Aguilar on the ground with 11 vs 2 takedowns, 9:22 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 456 |
| Activity ELO | 1 049 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +21 |
Rafael Estevam demonstrated extended layoff with 456 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Rafael Estevam capitalized on this activity level, while Jesus Aguilar's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +27 |
Rafael Estevam extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jesus Aguilar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 019 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.