August 16, 2024
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Stewart Nicoll |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 060 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Jesus Aguilar's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jesus Aguilar for the expected result. Had Stewart Nicoll pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Stewart Nicoll |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Stewart Nicoll |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:39 | 2:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 147 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -31 |
Jesus Aguilar earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:39, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Stewart Nicoll |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 059 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Stewart Nicoll controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (8 vs 3), superior accuracy (47.1% vs 60.0%). However, since Stewart Nicoll lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jesus Aguilar's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Stewart Nicoll |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:16 | 2:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 016 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Jesus Aguilar edged out Stewart Nicoll on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:16 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Stewart Nicoll |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 073 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -19 |
Jesus Aguilar demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jesus Aguilar capitalized on this activity level, while Stewart Nicoll's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Stewart Nicoll |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 052 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -19 |
Jesus Aguilar extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Stewart Nicoll is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Stewart Nicoll |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

