February 3, 2023
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 973 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Tatsuro Taira's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tatsuro Taira for the expected result. Had Jesus Aguilar pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:20 | 4:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 969 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +51 |
Tatsuro Taira earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:20, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 977 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Tatsuro Taira slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Tatsuro Taira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:23 | 3:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 923 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -77 | +77 |
Tatsuro Taira dominated Jesus Aguilar on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:49 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +44 |
Tatsuro Taira demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tatsuro Taira capitalized on this activity level, while Jesus Aguilar's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +24 |
Tatsuro Taira extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jesus Aguilar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jesus Aguilar | Tatsuro Taira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.