November 16, 2024
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jhonata Diniz | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -18 | 18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 083 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Marcin Tybura's 18-fight experience advantage (21 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcin Tybura for the expected result. Had Jhonata Diniz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jhonata Diniz | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 025 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jhonata Diniz | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 122 | 1 431 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
Marcin Tybura gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jhonata Diniz | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 49 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 153 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 065 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Marcin Tybura dominated the striking exchanges with 153 vs 27 total strikes, 35 vs 15 significant strikes, 71.4% vs 51.7% accuracy. Marcin Tybura capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jhonata Diniz | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:36 | 7:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 26 |
| Ground ELO | 1 025 | 1 302 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Marcin Tybura controlled Jhonata Diniz on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 7:14 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jhonata Diniz | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 99 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 1 074 | 1 298 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +27 |
Marcin Tybura demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marcin Tybura capitalized on this activity level, while Jhonata Diniz's 99-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jhonata Diniz | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 036 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +17 |
Marcin Tybura started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jhonata Diniz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jhonata Diniz | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 025 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.