August 26, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jim Miller | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 24 | 22 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 172 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Jim Miller's 2-fight experience advantage (24 vs 22 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Joe Lauzon pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 117 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 290 | 1 333 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jim Miller receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 80 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 166 | 136 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 97 | 92 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 187 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Jim Miller controlled the striking exchanges with 80 vs 54 significant strikes, 48.2% vs 39.7% accuracy. Jim Miller capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 6:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 080 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Jim Miller did not secure a significant ground advantage against Joe Lauzon on the ground with 0 takedowns, 4 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 49 | 49 |
| Activity ELO | 1 382 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -17 |
Jim Miller demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 49 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Lauzon's 49-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 176 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -19 |
Jim Miller extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Lauzon is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 117 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

