January 19, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jim Miller | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 220 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -28 |
Jim Miller overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Melvin Guillard.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 141 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:04 | 3:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 387 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -39 |
Jim Miller earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:04, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 268 | 1 411 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Melvin Guillard controlled the striking through superior volume (21 vs 5 total strikes), significant strike advantage (16 vs 4), superior accuracy (61.5% vs 33.3%). However, since Melvin Guillard lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jim Miller's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:59 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 241 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Jim Miller controlled Melvin Guillard on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:59 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 160 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 342 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -15 |
Jim Miller demonstrated solid activity levels with 160 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Melvin Guillard's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 215 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Jim Miller started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melvin Guillard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 140 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

