Jim Miller vs Nate Diaz

May 4, 2012

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1197
(-47)
Jim Miller
Winner: Nate Diaz
Submission
Round 2 • 4:09

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Jim Miller-47
Nate Diaz+54
1237
(+54)
Nate Diaz

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Jim Miller: -39Nate Diaz: +39

Performance Statistics

MetricJim MillerNate Diaz
Total UFC Fights1316
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO1 1811 176
ELO Change-39+39
💡

What Happened

Nate Diaz's 3-fight experience advantage (16 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Diaz for the expected result. Had Jim Miller pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Jim Miller: -24Nate Diaz: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricJim MillerNate Diaz
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1171 108
ELO Change-24+24
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Jim Miller: -50Nate Diaz: +78

Performance Statistics

MetricJim MillerNate Diaz
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish4:094:09
Win Type ELO1 3371 394
ELO Change-50+78
💡

What Happened

Nate Diaz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:09, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jim Miller was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Jim Miller: -38Nate Diaz: +38

Performance Statistics

MetricJim MillerNate Diaz
Significant Strikes Landed2546
Significant Strikes Attempted7198
Total Strikes Landed2797
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 2301 372
ELO Change-38+38
💡

What Happened

Nate Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 97 vs 27 total strikes, 46 vs 25 significant strikes, 46.9% vs 35.2% accuracy. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Jim Miller: -151Nate Diaz: +151

Performance Statistics

MetricJim MillerNate Diaz
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted51
Ground Control Time1:152:37
Ground Strikes Landed01
Ground ELO1 0901 258
ELO Change-151+151
💡

What Happened

Nate Diaz dominated Jim Miller on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:37 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Jim Miller: -25Nate Diaz: +50

Performance Statistics

MetricJim MillerNate Diaz
Days Since Last Fight106127
Activity ELO1 3171 325
ELO Change-25+50
💡

What Happened

Nate Diaz demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Jim Miller's 106-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Jim Miller: -26Nate Diaz: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricJim MillerNate Diaz
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO1 1891 157
ELO Change-26+34
💡

What Happened

Nate Diaz extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jim Miller is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Jim Miller: -24Nate Diaz: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricJim MillerNate Diaz
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1161 108
ELO Change-24+24
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.