May 4, 2012
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jim Miller | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 181 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Nate Diaz's 3-fight experience advantage (16 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Diaz for the expected result. Had Jim Miller pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 117 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:09 | 4:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 337 | 1 394 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +78 |
Nate Diaz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:09, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jim Miller was submitted.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 71 | 98 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 97 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 230 | 1 372 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Nate Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 97 vs 27 total strikes, 46 vs 25 significant strikes, 46.9% vs 35.2% accuracy. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:15 | 2:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 090 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -151 | +151 |
Nate Diaz dominated Jim Miller on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:37 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 317 | 1 325 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +50 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Jim Miller's 106-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 189 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +34 |
Nate Diaz extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jim Miller is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 116 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

