September 18, 2009
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jim Miller | Steve Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 096 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Jim Miller's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Steve Lopez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Steve Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 063 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Steve Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:48 | 0:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 186 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -27 |
Jim Miller gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Steve Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 87 | 49 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 199 | 920 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -80 |
Jim Miller controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 15 total strikes, 30 vs 6 significant strikes, 34.5% vs 12.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jim Miller capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Steve Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:18 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 301 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Jim Miller landed 1 knockdown followed by 11 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Steve Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 202 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -12 |
Jim Miller demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Steve Lopez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Steve Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 077 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -18 |
Jim Miller extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Steve Lopez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Steve Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

