November 11, 2016
Catch Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jim Miller | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 25 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 203 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Jim Miller's 4-fight experience advantage (25 vs 21 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Thiago Alves pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 138 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 342 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Jim Miller earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 112 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 216 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Thiago Alves controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (36 vs 28). However, since Thiago Alves lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jim Miller's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:24 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 161 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -81 |
Jim Miller controlled Thiago Alves on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 6:24 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 78 | 533 |
| Activity ELO | 1 430 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -16 |
Jim Miller demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 78 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Alves's 533-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 205 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -22 |
Jim Miller extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jim Miller | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 137 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.