December 7, 2018
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jimi Manuwa | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 098 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Thiago Santos's 6-fight experience advantage (17 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Jimi Manuwa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jimi Manuwa | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 028 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jimi Manuwa | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:41 | 0:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 253 | 1 478 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +51 |
Thiago Santos gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jimi Manuwa | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 74 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 068 | 1 445 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Thiago Santos dominated the striking exchanges with 65 vs 30 total strikes, 42 vs 27 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Thiago Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jimi Manuwa | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:25 | 1:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 013 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Thiago Santos did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jimi Manuwa on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:20 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jimi Manuwa | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 266 | 78 |
| Activity ELO | 1 103 | 1 332 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +32 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 78 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Jimi Manuwa's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jimi Manuwa | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 053 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +21 |
Thiago Santos extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jimi Manuwa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jimi Manuwa | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.