April 26, 2025
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jimmy Flick | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Matt Schnell's 9-fight experience advantage (15 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Schnell for the expected result. Had Jimmy Flick pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jimmy Flick | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 958 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jimmy Flick | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 975 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Matt Schnell earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jimmy Flick | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 61 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 88 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 763 | 909 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Matt Schnell controlled the striking exchanges with 88 vs 48 total strikes, 35 vs 12 significant strikes. Matt Schnell capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jimmy Flick | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:28 | 3:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 19 |
| Ground ELO | 898 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Matt Schnell did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jimmy Flick on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:53 of control time, 19 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jimmy Flick | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 316 | 232 |
| Activity ELO | 970 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +19 |
Matt Schnell demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Schnell capitalized on this activity level, while Jimmy Flick's 316-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jimmy Flick | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 965 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Matt Schnell started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jimmy Flick is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jimmy Flick | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 958 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.