October 14, 2022
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joanderson Brito | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 078 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Joanderson Brito's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joanderson Brito for the expected result. Had Lucas Alexander pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joanderson Brito | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joanderson Brito | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:02 | 2:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 174 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -27 |
Joanderson Brito earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:02, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Joanderson Brito | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 2 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 168 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Joanderson Brito slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Joanderson Brito capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joanderson Brito | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:25 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 072 | 926 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -74 |
Joanderson Brito controlled Lucas Alexander on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:25 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Joanderson Brito | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 091 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -17 |
Joanderson Brito demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joanderson Brito capitalized on this activity level, while Lucas Alexander's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joanderson Brito | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 033 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Joanderson Brito extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucas Alexander is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joanderson Brito | Lucas Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

