October 11, 2019
Women's Strawweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 166 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Joanna Jedrzejczyk's 5-fight experience advantage (13 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the expected result. Had Michelle Waterson-Gomez pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 231 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 243 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Joanna Jedrzejczyk earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 180 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 300 | 160 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 226 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 209 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Joanna Jedrzejczyk dominated the striking exchanges with 226 vs 71 total strikes, 180 vs 58 significant strikes, 60.0% vs 36.3% accuracy. Joanna Jedrzejczyk capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:33 | 4:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 169 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged out Michelle Waterson-Gomez on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 5:33 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 308 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 228 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Joanna Jedrzejczyk demonstrated standard activity with 308 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Joanna Jedrzejczyk capitalized on this activity level, while Michelle Waterson-Gomez's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 206 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -15 |
Joanna Jedrzejczyk started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michelle Waterson-Gomez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 114 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.