May 17, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joao Zeferino | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 972 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Rafael Natal's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Natal for the expected result. Had Joao Zeferino pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joao Zeferino | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joao Zeferino | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 967 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Rafael Natal earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Joao Zeferino | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 112 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 953 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Rafael Natal dominated the striking exchanges with 112 vs 22 total strikes, 29 vs 14 significant strikes, 43.3% vs 35.0% accuracy. Rafael Natal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joao Zeferino | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 4:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 966 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Rafael Natal controlled Joao Zeferino on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:52 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Joao Zeferino | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +47 |
Rafael Natal demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Natal capitalized on this activity level, while Joao Zeferino's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joao Zeferino | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Rafael Natal extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joao Zeferino is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joao Zeferino | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.