June 14, 2025
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 307 | 1 444 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Kamaru Usman's 3-fight experience advantage (19 vs 16 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kamaru Usman for the expected result. Had Joaquin Buckley pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 146 | 1 358 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 515 | 1 693 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Kamaru Usman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 148 | 99 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 137 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 467 | 1 638 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Kamaru Usman dominated the striking exchanges with 137 vs 51 total strikes, 41.4% vs 29.7% accuracy. Kamaru Usman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 13 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 12:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 1 337 | 1 649 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Kamaru Usman dominated Joaquin Buckley on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 12:57 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 603 |
| Activity ELO | 1 416 | 1 479 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +17 |
Kamaru Usman demonstrated extended layoff with 603 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Kamaru Usman capitalized on this activity level, while Joaquin Buckley's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 261 | 1 616 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +6 |
Kamaru Usman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joaquin Buckley is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 134 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.