October 5, 2024
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 284 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -32 |
Joaquin Buckley overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (14 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Stephen Thompson.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 131 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:17 | 2:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 515 | 1 409 |
| ELO Change | +91 | -46 |
Joaquin Buckley gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 93 | 106 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 453 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -87 |
Stephen Thompson controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (49 vs 34). However, since Stephen Thompson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Joaquin Buckley's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:13 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 344 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Joaquin Buckley landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 295 |
| Activity ELO | 1 368 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -16 |
Joaquin Buckley demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joaquin Buckley capitalized on this activity level, while Stephen Thompson's 295-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 198 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -24 |
Joaquin Buckley continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Stephen Thompson's now at 0.
| Metric | Joaquin Buckley | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 129 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.