October 20, 2017
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jodie Esquibel | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 974 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Karolina Kowalkiewicz for the expected result. Had Jodie Esquibel pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jodie Esquibel | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jodie Esquibel | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 962 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jodie Esquibel | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 65 | 127 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 175 | 333 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 142 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 966 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz dominated the striking exchanges with 142 vs 66 total strikes, 127 vs 65 significant strikes. Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jodie Esquibel | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:12 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 972 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz slightly outworked Jodie Esquibel on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 5 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Jodie Esquibel | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +31 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this activity level, while Jodie Esquibel's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jodie Esquibel | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jodie Esquibel is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jodie Esquibel | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.