May 7, 2010
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Doerksen | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 968 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Joe Doerksen's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Doerksen for the expected result. Had Tom Lawlor pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joe Doerksen | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 957 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Doerksen | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:10 | 2:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 028 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +102 | -66 |
Joe Doerksen earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:10, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Tom Lawlor was submitted.
| Metric | Joe Doerksen | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 94 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 829 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Tom Lawlor controlled the striking through 1 knockdown. However, since Tom Lawlor lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Joe Doerksen's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Doerksen | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:31 | 0:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 940 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Joe Doerksen edged out Tom Lawlor on the ground with 0:31 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Joe Doerksen | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 749 | 117 |
| Activity ELO | 972 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -26 |
Joe Doerksen demonstrated extended layoff with 749 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Joe Doerksen capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Lawlor's 117-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Doerksen | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 964 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -26 |
Joe Doerksen started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Lawlor is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Doerksen | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 956 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

