July 17, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Duffy | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 038 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +51 |
Joel Alvarez overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Joe Duffy.
| Metric | Joe Duffy | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 998 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Duffy | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:25 | 2:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 101 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +93 |
Joel Alvarez earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:25, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Joe Duffy | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 958 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Joel Alvarez slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Joel Alvarez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Duffy | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 964 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Joe Duffy | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 490 | 413 |
| Activity ELO | 1 036 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +20 |
Joel Alvarez demonstrated extended layoff with 413 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Joel Alvarez capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Duffy's 490-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Duffy | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 011 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +27 |
Joel Alvarez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Duffy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Duffy | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.