December 13, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 119 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Joe Lauzon's 3-fight experience advantage (16 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Lauzon for the expected result. Had Mac Danzig pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 061 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 264 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Joe Lauzon earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 43 | 52 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 80 | 91 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 923 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Mac Danzig controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (52 vs 43). However, since Mac Danzig lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Joe Lauzon's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:56 | 2:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 33 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 167 | 900 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Joe Lauzon dominated Mac Danzig on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 6:56 of control time, 33 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 185 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -14 |
Joe Lauzon demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Lauzon capitalized on this activity level, while Mac Danzig's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 089 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -16 |
Joe Lauzon started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mac Danzig is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.