January 14, 2017
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Marcin Held |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 23 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 21 | -21 |
| Experience ELO | 1 137 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Joe Lauzon's 21-fight experience advantage (23 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Lauzon for the expected result. Had Marcin Held pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Marcin Held |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 076 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Marcin Held |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 335 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +2 | -2 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Joe Lauzon receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Marcin Held |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 152 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Joe Lauzon slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Joe Lauzon capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Marcin Held |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:37 | 8:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 201 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Joe Lauzon did not secure a significant ground advantage against Marcin Held on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:37 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Marcin Held |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 142 | 71 |
| Activity ELO | 1 228 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -9 |
Joe Lauzon demonstrated solid activity levels with 142 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Lauzon capitalized on this activity level, while Marcin Held's 71-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Marcin Held |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 112 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -15 |
Joe Lauzon started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcin Held is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Marcin Held |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 076 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.