October 7, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 178 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -36 |
Joe Lauzon overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Melvin Guillard.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 097 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:47 | 0:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 371 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | +113 | -53 |
Joe Lauzon locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:47 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 235 | 1 443 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Melvin Guillard controlled the striking through superior accuracy (50.0% vs 33.3%). However, since Melvin Guillard lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Joe Lauzon's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:19 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 302 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 104 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 205 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -27 |
Joe Lauzon demonstrated solid activity levels with 104 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Lauzon capitalized on this activity level, while Melvin Guillard's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 123 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -25 |
Joe Lauzon extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melvin Guillard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 095 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

