September 4, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 147 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Joe Lauzon's 11-fight experience advantage (17 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Lauzon for the expected result. Had Michael Chiesa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 082 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:14 | 2:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 282 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Joe Lauzon gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 41 | 57 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 954 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Michael Chiesa controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (30 vs 21). However, since Michael Chiesa lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Joe Lauzon's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:44 | 1:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 229 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Joe Lauzon controlled Michael Chiesa on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 2:44 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 265 | 104 |
| Activity ELO | 1 205 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Joe Lauzon demonstrated standard activity with 265 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Joe Lauzon capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Chiesa's 104-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 113 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Joe Lauzon extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Chiesa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Lauzon | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 081 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.