February 15, 1996
Open Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Moreira | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Paul Varelans's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Varelans for the expected result. Had Joe Moreira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joe Moreira | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Moreira | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 10:00 | 10:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 973 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +31 |
Paul Varelans earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Joe Moreira | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 38 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 973 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Joe Moreira controlled the striking through superior accuracy (42.9% vs 23.7%). However, since Joe Moreira lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Paul Varelans's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Moreira | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 983 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Joe Moreira | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 62 |
| Activity ELO | 992 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +25 |
Paul Varelans demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 62 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Paul Varelans capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Moreira's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Moreira | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Paul Varelans started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Moreira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Moreira | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.