June 7, 2025
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Pyfer | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -18 | 18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 250 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -38 |
Joe Pyfer overcame a 18-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 24 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kelvin Gastelum.
| Metric | Joe Pyfer | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 082 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Pyfer | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 391 | 1 345 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Joe Pyfer earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Joe Pyfer | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 114 | 99 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 348 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | +100 | -100 |
Joe Pyfer dominated the striking exchanges with 58 vs 34 total strikes, 57 vs 33 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Joe Pyfer capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Pyfer | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:31 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 208 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -71 |
Joe Pyfer landed 2 knockdowns followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Joe Pyfer | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 344 | 351 |
| Activity ELO | 1 157 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Joe Pyfer demonstrated standard activity with 344 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Joe Pyfer capitalized on this activity level, while Kelvin Gastelum's 351-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Pyfer | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 109 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -26 |
Joe Pyfer extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kelvin Gastelum is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Pyfer | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 082 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.