November 18, 2005
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Riggs | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 015 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Matt Hughes's 10-fight experience advantage (14 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hughes for the expected result. Had Joe Riggs pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joe Riggs | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 013 | 1 318 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Riggs | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:28 | 3:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 062 | 1 391 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +21 |
Matt Hughes earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:28, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Joe Riggs | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 066 | 1 348 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Matt Hughes slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 8 vs 1 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 20.0% accuracy. Matt Hughes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Riggs | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 044 | 1 426 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Matt Hughes dominated Joe Riggs on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:03 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Joe Riggs | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 44 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 1 029 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +12 |
Matt Hughes demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Riggs's 44-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Riggs | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 013 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +16 |
Matt Hughes extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Riggs is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Riggs | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 006 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.