January 11, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Solecki | Nurullo Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 117 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +57 |
Nurullo Aliev overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Joe Solecki.
| Metric | Joe Solecki | Nurullo Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Solecki | Nurullo Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 090 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Nurullo Aliev earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Joe Solecki | Nurullo Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 68 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 014 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Nurullo Aliev edged the striking exchanges with 81 vs 52 total strikes, 35 vs 28 significant strikes. Nurullo Aliev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Solecki | Nurullo Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:36 | 8:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 089 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Nurullo Aliev controlled Joe Solecki on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 8:13 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Solecki | Nurullo Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 225 | 687 |
| Activity ELO | 1 062 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +22 |
Nurullo Aliev demonstrated extended layoff with 687 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Nurullo Aliev capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Solecki's 225-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Solecki | Nurullo Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 041 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +28 |
Nurullo Aliev extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Solecki is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Solecki | Nurullo Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.