November 14, 2008
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 094 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Kenny Florian's 2-fight experience advantage (11 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kenny Florian for the expected result. Had Joe Stevenson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 066 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:03 | 4:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 234 | 1 421 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +48 |
Kenny Florian earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:03, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 118 | 1 414 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Kenny Florian edged the striking exchanges with 17 vs 6 significant strikes, 45.9% vs 33.3% accuracy. Kenny Florian capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:17 | 1:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 191 | 1 505 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Kenny Florian dominated Joe Stevenson on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:06 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 1 178 | 1 311 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +41 |
Kenny Florian demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kenny Florian capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Stevenson's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 088 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +41 |
Kenny Florian continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Joe Stevenson's now at 0.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 062 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

