Joe Stevenson vs Kenny Florian

November 14, 2008

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1129
(-25)
Joe Stevenson
Winner: Kenny Florian
Submission
Round 1 • 4:03

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Joe Stevenson-25
Kenny Florian+34
1296
(+34)
Kenny Florian

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: -25Kenny Florian: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonKenny Florian
Total UFC Fights911
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO1 0941 219
ELO Change-25+25
💡

What Happened

Kenny Florian's 2-fight experience advantage (11 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kenny Florian for the expected result. Had Joe Stevenson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: -19Kenny Florian: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonKenny Florian
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0661 141
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: -29Kenny Florian: +48

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonKenny Florian
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:034:03
Win Type ELO1 2341 421
ELO Change-29+48
💡

What Happened

Kenny Florian earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:03, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: -18Kenny Florian: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonKenny Florian
Significant Strikes Landed617
Significant Strikes Attempted1837
Total Strikes Landed924
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 1181 414
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

Kenny Florian edged the striking exchanges with 17 vs 6 significant strikes, 45.9% vs 33.3% accuracy. Kenny Florian capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: -57Kenny Florian: +57

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonKenny Florian
Takedowns Landed11
Takedowns Attempted32
Ground Control Time1:171:06
Ground Strikes Landed05
Ground ELO1 1911 505
ELO Change-57+57
💡

What Happened

Kenny Florian dominated Joe Stevenson on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:06 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: -16Kenny Florian: +41

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonKenny Florian
Days Since Last Fight13499
Activity ELO1 1781 311
ELO Change-16+41
💡

What Happened

Kenny Florian demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kenny Florian capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Stevenson's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: -17Kenny Florian: +41

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonKenny Florian
Win Streak06
Win Streak ELO1 0881 215
ELO Change-17+41
💡

What Happened

Kenny Florian continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Joe Stevenson's now at 0.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Joe Stevenson: -19Kenny Florian: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricJoe StevensonKenny Florian
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0621 141
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.