August 24, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 123 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Joe Stevenson's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Stevenson for the expected result. Had Kurt Pellegrino pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 083 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 248 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Joe Stevenson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 84 | 91 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 80 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 134 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Joe Stevenson controlled the striking exchanges with 80 vs 35 total strikes, 42 vs 27 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 29.7% accuracy. Joe Stevenson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:07 | 6:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 26 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 238 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Joe Stevenson controlled Kurt Pellegrino on the ground with 3 takedowns, 4:07 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 142 | 142 |
| Activity ELO | 1 183 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -16 |
Joe Stevenson demonstrated solid activity levels with 142 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Stevenson capitalized on this activity level, while Kurt Pellegrino's 142-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 106 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -18 |
Joe Stevenson extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kurt Pellegrino is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joe Stevenson | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 083 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.